China’s exports rebounded in March ahead of the massive tariff hikes imposed against it by the US this month, with near-record shipments flowing to South-east Asia.

Exports in US dollar terms far exceeded forecasts and soared 12.4 per cent from a year earlier, the customs authority said on Monday (Apr 14), reversing a decline of 3 per cent in February. The value of sales abroad was higher than every estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, whose median was 4.6 per cent.

Imports shrank 4.3 per cent, leaving a trade surplus of US$103 billion last month.

The export surge supported the economy in the first quarter, but that boost may dissipate after the US threw global trade into chaos. The Trump administration put tariffs of higher than 100 per cent on many Chinese exports, provoking a retaliation by Beijing.

In March, many companies were likely frontloading orders to get ahead of tariffs. What’s more, the latest figures suggest companies are diverting shipments to countries across South-east Asia, with China’s exports to the region reaching the second-highest ever.

Exports to Vietnam and Thailand soared to records, while sales to the US grew more than 44 per cent from February to exceed US$40 billion last month. Exports to the US almost 9 per cent in March from a year ago, after dropping in February.

At the same time, the drop in imports reflects sluggish demand at home, a worry as China’s export engine comes under pressure. China will report first-quarter economic growth on Wednesday, with gross domestic product forecast to expand 5.2 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Newly-added US duties on Chinese goods this year hit 145 per cent – well above the levels analysts have said would decimate bilateral trade – before the US decision to exempt certain consumer electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs.

Donald Trump downplayed his exemptions on Sunday, pledging still to apply tariffs to phones, computers and popular consumer electronics.

Chinese stocks were on track to gain for a fifth session, partly as the US tariff exemption offered investors some respite. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose as much as 2.7 per cent, while the CSI 300 Index for onshore shares climbed as much as 0.7 per cent.

The fallout of America’s economic divorce with China will likely begin to be felt from this month, with little sign that the two sides are willing to back down and reduce their tariffs.