Rising concerns about conflicts in the Middle East and their impact on crude supplies sent oil prices sharply upward this week, recovering almost all of the previous week’s 7% slide. At the same time, natural gas prices hit a slippery slope.

West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose all five trading days, rising in 50-cent increments until Thursday, when Israel rejected a true plan and WTI climbed $2.36 per barrel. WTI added 62 cents Friday to end the week at $76.84, up from $72.28 last Friday. The posted price closed the week at $73.32, according to Plains All American.

Natural gas futures sank four of five trading days to close below $1.90 per Mcf. After posting a marginal increase Monday to open trading, natural gas fell 7 cents Tuesday, 4.2 cents Wednesday, 5 cents Thursday and a further 7 cents Friday to end at $1.847 per Mcf, well below $2.079 per Mcf at last Friday’s close.

Natural gas prices’ close this week is the lowest since September 2020, according to East Daly Analytics. East Daley analysts said the April futures contract is around $1.94 per Mcf and May is barely above $2 at $2.04.

“Weak fundamentals have prevailed, with above normal winter weather taking center stage to limit demand in a severely oversupplied market,” the analysts told the Reporter-Telegram by email. “While Winter Storm Heather in mid-January put a dent in production resulting in losses of about 2.6 billion cubic feet per day for the month, the ensuing recovery of production over the past three weeks has changed market dynamics swiftly as net withdrawals from storage have returned to levels well below the five-year average.”

The analysts noted that the week ending February 1st saw the Energy Information Administration print a -75 Bcf withdrawal, “an astounding 118 Bcf below the five-year average withdrawal for the same week.”

The market is also preparing for a weaker withdrawal for the week ending February 8th and February 16, where the surplus of gas in storage versus the five-year average could climb by 130 Bcf to 378 Bcf.  Below normal cold weather could be on the horizon for the period February 17-21, but the market has largely shrugged this off as being too little too late, the analysts wrote.