Can Asia help Myanmar find a way out of coup crisis?

  • 2021-02-26 16:09:06
The arrival of the Myanmar junta-appointed foreign minister, Wunna Maung Lwin, in Bangkok on Wednesday for an unannounced meeting with his Thai and Indonesian counterparts marked the start of a daunting diplomatic undertaking for South East Asia. No details were released of what was discussed. This first official contact with a senior member of the junta was so delicate that, when asked about it, Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was unwilling to confirm that it had even happened. In fact for every country with an interest in what happens in Myanmar, the crisis presents an unusually thorny challenge. The responses of the world's military and economic superpowers have inevitably drawn most attention; the sanctions imposed by the Biden administration in the United States, and those being prepared by the European Union. There was a predictably bland statement from China, merely urging all parties to settle their differences peacefully. But China did back a watered-down UN Security Council statement, which, while it failed to condemn the coup, did call for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and a return to democratic norms, showing that China was not happy about the coup. But both the US and China have limited options over how they deal with the Myanmar crisis. The influence of the US is much diminished in this region, far lower than the last time it imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions in the 1990s.Yet even those sanctions, which helped cripple the Burmese economy, had little influence on the decisions made by the then-ruling junta. The more limited, targeted sanctions imposed now are intended to hit only those directly involved in the coup and the military's businesses, but will likewise do little to change minds in Nay Pyi Taw. The crisis has come very early in the Biden administration just as it was beginning to formulate a new approach to the Asia-Pacific region, one which is supposed to emphasise democratic values and also working in co-operation with regional partners like the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean). But, like China, Asean will not sign up to an approach based on sanctions and condemnation of the junta.

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