This month, Russia accepted credentials from the ambassador appointed by the Taliban’s government in Afghanistan. 

It’s pertinent to state that China, UAE, Uzbekistan and Pakistan have already upgraded their relations with Afghanistan at the ambassador-level since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. 

However, the Russian move is significant as it becomes the first country to explicitly use the term “official recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” in its foreign affairs ministry statement. 

Russia has affirmed that this action will give an “impetus to the development of productive bilateral cooperation” adding that it will “continue to assist Kabul in strengthening regional security, fighting terrorist threats and drug crime.”

The development has important implications due to key linkages with the evolving geo-political situation of Afghanistan and the region as well as the mainstreaming of Afghanistan into the world order. Russia’s engagement with Afghanistan in the past two decades has evolved against the backdrop of the Soviet military intervention of the 1980s, and the emergence of cross-border threats of terrorism, drugs, organized crime and extremism. In 2016, Russia initiated the Moscow Format as a platform for discussions on peace and stability in Afghanistan.

One major effect of the US and NATO military intervention in Afghanistan has been the Taliban becoming the most dominant actor in the country. As a result, since the Taliban takeover, their control and access over Afghanistan has been firmer than in the 1990s but without the notion of being compliant to a constitutional order entailing inclusivity and adherence to international human rights frameworks. Consequently, the Afghan Taliban government has stayed in political and economic isolation in a highly polarized international environment marked by proliferating wars and conflicts in various parts of the world.

For Russia, one of the leading priorities for engagement with the Taliban government has been cooperation in the fight against global terror groups particularly Daesh. Fighting Daesh has been a strong factor of convergence in Russia’s engagement with the Afghan Taliban who consider Daesh an existential threat to their regime.

One of Russia’s important strategic concerns is stability across Afghanistan’s northern border with the Central Asian countries. Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, three Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan – Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan – have adopted the more sophisticated approach of prioritizing economic engagement and avoiding sliding into a new phase of supporting proxies or armed insurgency, in a repeat of the 1990s. Russia and Kazakhstan, another important Central Asian country for regional security and economic connectivity, have already removed the Taliban from their terror listings and Tajikistan may follow suit.

The timing of the decision of recognition of the Afghan Taliban government is also influenced by the challenges being confronted by Russia in global geopolitics. Russia’s entanglement in an unending war with Ukraine and the Trump-Putin interaction on that matter are not moving according to Russia’s expectations. The change in Syria and war against Iran have on the whole marginalized the Russian role and interests in the Middle East. The Russian and Taliban perspectives are close to each other particularly on issues such as the possibility of movements of fighters between Syria and Afghanistan. In this evolving scenario, Russia believes formal recognition of the Taliban could serve its future interests in a possible power struggle within the Afghan theater between the US and China.

The Russian decision is, however, being criticized by two quarters. One, the non-Taliban Afghan politicians who were ousted from power following the US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan who see the move as an endorsement of the Taliban’s exclusive regime in Afghanistan. The other is the group of largely Western countries who supported Afghan governments prior to 2021 and have not yet established diplomatic relations with the Taliban government.

In international politics, ground realities determine power equations. In the last four years, the Taliban have significantly consolidated their control over Afghanistan. Despite the Taliban’s intransigence to the principles of inclusivity and universal human rights and their selectivity in tackling the challenge of terrorism, their neighbors and regional countries have adopted the pragmatic approach of engagement, which continues to broaden with time.