Facing the reality of a nuclear North Korea, worsening relations with ostensible ally South Korea, and an unpredictable partner in Washington, Japan’s government is ramping up its military defenses, shedding many of its postwar taboos. Could the ban on nuclear weapons also be sent to the scrap heap at the same time as the country gets a real army? The idea seems far-fetched, but Japan is increasingly alone in a fast-changing Asian security environment.
Since the advent of the atomic age, Japan has sat comfortably under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, a key element in a defense alliance that is often touted by both U.S. and Japanese officials as the strongest in the world. The treaty, first signed in 1951, provides U.S. security guarantees for a country that had renounced the use of force in its post-World War II constitution, which was largely drafted by Japan’s U.S. occupiers. In exchange, Japan is home to extensive U.S. military bases that have helped to project power into the center of East Asia. The alliance seemed unbreakable. But that was before Donald Trump became U.S. president—a leader ostensibly willing to put everything on the table, with a view of Japan seemingly stuck in the 1980s.
From the cost of military bases to the chronic trade deficit, Trump’s statements have Japanese officials privately worried that the United States might take rash action that would have been unthinkable in previous administrations—such as a deal with North Korea that leaves Japan exposed.
Cementing the warming personal relations between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Trump were recent comments from Kim ahead of their planned February summit.
“Kim Jong Un said that we will believe in President Trump’s positive way of thinking, wait with patience and in good faith and, together with the U.S., advance step by step toward the goal to be reached by the two countries,” North Korea’s official KCNA news agency said last Thursday.
The problem for Japan is what that might mean for its security. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News last week that “Chairman Kim continues to assure the president of the United States he is intent on denuclearization”—but promises of denuclearization on one side of the Sea of Japan are prompting backroom talk of going the opposite way on the other.
That would be a huge step. The only country to have seen firsthand the devastation of atomic weapons, Japan has long held a no-nukes policy based on three principles: nonpossession, nonproduction, and nonintroduction of nuclear weapons. It has been a leading force at the United Nations for nonproliferation and the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons.
Trump has railed against Japan on numerous occasions, even as he seems to retain some fondness for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But he has even kinder words for Kim. Trump’s much-heralded North Korean deal is still up in the air, but he famously declared when he returned to Washington from the pomp of the Singapore summit that the United States was now safe. The choice of words was not lost on the Japanese government, which rushed to ensure that it was not being left out in the cold (or the rain).The choice of words was not lost on the Japanese government, which rushed to ensure that it was not being left out in the cold (or the rain).The concern in Tokyo is that Trump, badly in need of a clear victory in his North Korea negotiations, may settle for a ban on intercontinental weapons, leaving nearby Asian countries to sort out what to do about all the short-range missiles that Pyongyang has deployed.
As many experts have noted, what the U.S.-North Korea commitment to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula means is in the eye of the beholder. For Kim, it appears to mean that the United States drops its strategic military alliance with South Korea. Given the proximity to Japan and the fact that defense of South Korea is a cornerstone of the U.S.-Japan military alliance, North Korea would likely insist that the same goes for Japan.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who took office in May 2017, has moved at a breakneck pace to reduce the threat posed by Pyongyang. His administration has taken the lead in dealing with his unpredictable neighbor (and an unpredictable U.S. leader). He has held three summit meetings with Kim, with the two leaders agreeing to reduce the military capabilities along the border and Demilitarized Zone. Moon has also said the South would provide financial and economic aid as soon as U.S. sanctions are lifted.
AFP.