Beijing’s strong countertariffs raise the specter of an intense trade war with Washington
- 2025-04-07 03:41:00

Risks of an intense U.S.-China trade war are rising rapidly, according to analysts, after Beijing responded more forcefully than many had expected to U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.
In a shift in tone, China also dropped its call for negotiations on trade in a weekend statement that condemned U.S. levies, raising the prospects of an extended period of tariff escalation.
“China has taken and will continue to take resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Saturday.
Beijing on Friday retaliated with levies of 34% on all U.S. goods — matching the latest duties by the Trump administration. Those came on top of the 10-15% tariffs China levied in March and February, which had focused on agricultural and energy products imported from the U.S.
“Raising tariff on all U.S. imports by the same amount as Trump’s latest tariff demonstrates China’s determination to go all the way to wherever the U.S. wants to be,” said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist.
As part of the broad retaliatory measures, Beijing also placed export curbs on key rare earth elements, prohibited exports of dual-use items to a dozen of U.S. entities, mostly in defense and aerospace industries, and put 11 more U.S. firms to its “unreliable entities list,” subjecting them to broader restrictions while operating in China.
“Beijing’s aggressive posture signals that future retaliation will be more forceful, setting off an escalatory spiral and raising the odds of unmanaged decoupling in 2025,” a team of analysts at Eurasia Group said in a note.
China’s response will likely prompt further rounds of tariffs from the U.S. in an effort to discourage similar moves from other trading partners, Eurasia Group analysts said, noting that “some Trump officials view this as a unique time to double down on China in an effort to accelerate a decoupling of commercial ties.”
Beijing’s swift response came on the back of Trump’s announcement of additional 34% tariffs on China, raising the U.S. weighted average tariff rate on China to as high as 65%, according to Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.
That could stunt the world’s second-biggest economy by 1.5 to 2 percentage points this year, Xing estimates, citing slower exports growth and entrenched domestic deflation.