Global oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, marking a sharp shift from its earlier forecasts of a rapid transition to cleaner energy sources and warning that the world is likely to miss its climate targets.

The IEA, which serves as the West’s energy security watchdog, has faced pressure from the United States in recent years to emphasize clean energy policies, though President Donald Trump has urged American companies to further expand oil and gas production. Under the Biden administration, the agency had predicted that global oil demand would peak within this decade, insisting that no new investment in fossil fuels was necessary to meet climate goals. 

Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed those earlier projections as “nonsensical.” The IEA, funded by its member countries—of which the U.S. is the largest contributor—provides data and analysis that guide energy strategies worldwide.

In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA said that under its current policies scenario—which reflects existing government measures rather than climate pledges—global oil demand is expected to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, about 13% higher than in 2024. 

It also projects that total global energy demand will rise by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15% increase from today’s levels. The agency noted that it had planned to assess new national climate commitments for 2031–2035, but said too few countries had submitted their targets to produce a meaningful analysis.

Meanwhile, the IEA highlighted a surge in investments for liquefied natural gas (LNG), with final investment decisions in 2025 leading to an additional 300 billion cubic meters of annual export capacity expected by 2030—a 50% increase in global supply. Under current policies, global LNG demand is projected to grow from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035, and 1,020 bcm by 2050, driven largely by rising energy needs from data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure.