Vladimir Putin: What Russian president's India visit means for world politics
2021-12-06 15:58:42
Visits by Russian presidents to India always invoke a sense of nostalgia.
The Moscow-Delhi relationship dates back to the Cold War era and it has been strong ever since.
This "all-weather" partnership is one of the success stories of global diplomacy, and a high mark for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to live up to when they meet in Delhi on Monday.
But beyond the big-ticket defence deals, trade announcements, handshakes and Mr Modi's trademark hugs, the two countries will also have to overcome serious challenges.
And that is largely down to the different geopolitical choices the two countries have made in recent months and years. How they solve these issues will influence regional, and global politics.
Growing India-US relations is one irritant that has loomed large over Delhi-Moscow ties, more so in the past decade. Mr Modi even held a big rally for Donald Trump in 2020 when he visited India. It was a vibrant show of support for Washington.
Moscow largely overlooked such irritants even though its own relations with Washington steadily deteriorated in recent years. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chose to speak openly when India joined the Quad - an alliance involving the US, Japan and Australia. The group said the Quad was a non-military alliance and wasn't aimed at a specific country, but Mr Lavrov didn't seem to agree.
He said the West was "trying to engage India in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies". Former Indian diplomat Anil Trigunayat, who served in Moscow, says that the Quad is a red line for Russia and this will most definitely be part of the discussions between the two leaders.
Moscow's worries about the Quad can be understood from its growing relations with Beijing in recent years. Mr Trigunayat adds that Russia has been compelled to forge closer ties with China to secure its economic and geopolitical interests in Asia as the US-led West also seeks to dominate the region.
China's deteriorating ties with the US also appear to have pushed Beijing and Moscow closer.
What complicates the matter further is that India-China relations have been recently tense - troops from the two countries fought a deadly clash in Ladakh's Galwan Valley with clubs and stones which left 20 Indian soldiers dead. China later accepted that some of its soldiers also died in the clashes.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director at the Wilson Center think-tank in Washington, says the new geopolitical realities pose a "potential threat to the India-Russia relationship".
In this context, Mr Putin's visit is important to uphold the special relationship. "I think for Russia, the objective in this case, is to reinforce the importance of Moscow's relations with New Delhi, even as the geopolitical signposts suggest otherwise," Mr Kugelman adds.
But analysts, including Mr Kugleman and Mr Trigunayat, feel that the foundations of the relationship between the two countries are strong enough to address each other's concerns.
The countries have several areas where they can and will look to cooperate - Afghanistan is one of them.
It will most definitely be part of the discussion as Delhi tries to stay relevant in Afghanistan. Pakistan, India's neighbour and archrival, now has better strategic depth in Afghanistan as it appears to have formed an informal alliance with Russia, Iran and China.