For Donald Trump, a peace deal – or even a durable ceasefire between Israel and Hamas – could be the biggest diplomatic achievement of his presidency.

The details and sequencing of a deal to end Israel’s war in Gaza remain murky but the statement of purpose by both Israel and Hamas is meaningful. In agreeing to a deal with political backing from Arab states and other regional powers, this is the best chance for an end to the war since a ceasefire broke down in March, returning Gaza to a grinding war that has left nearly 68,000 people dead, most of them civilians.

Since March there have been rumblings of a deal but nothing that has come this close. The first phase of the peace plan, as Trump called it in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, is straightforward: the return of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a limited withdrawal by the Israeli military. But finding all the hostages, and managing an Israeli withdrawal, could be complicated.

In keeping with the tone of Trump’s presidency, hopes are expressed in hyperbole, with the president saying: “ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly!”

There is so much left to be discussed. The 20-point peace plan proposed by the administration attempts to thread the needle between creating the conditions for a ceasefire and negotiating a lasting end to the war; the hard questions of Hamas’s future and whether the militant group will disarm, along with Israel’s vision for the future of Gaza, remain to be hammered out.

And we have been here before: the Trump administration was in a hurry to negotiate an end to the Gaza war even before the inauguration, and a hastily organised ceasefire in January broke down over the sequencing of the release of the hostages still held in Gaza.

Yet this is a crucial moment. As the US president spoke at an anti-antifa roundtable on Wednesday afternoon, he was handed a note by the secretary of state, Marco Rubio: “Very close. We need you to approve a Truth Social post soon so you can announce deal first.”

Nobody said Israel’s war in Gaza had to end with Oslo-style peace accords or political deliberations.

This is a different moment – an openly partisan and flighty US president, who nonetheless has wielded his unpredictability to keep both his allies and enemies off-balance. Trump is also said to be motivated by a desire to see himself as the first US president given the Nobel peace prize since Barack Obama.

That prize is to be delivered on Friday, and the desire to give the US president a win has driven political considerations in Washington and throughout the Middle East.

The remaining tensions are clear. Hamas called on Trump and other parties to “ensure that the Israeli occupation government fully complies with the terms of the agreement”. The fear is that Israel may resume its offensive once the hostages are returned.

“We will never abandon our people’s national rights until freedom, independence, and self-determination are achieved,” the group said, referring obliquely to a desire for Palestinian statehood that has been rejected by Netanyahu and largely abandoned by the White House.

Netanyahu, too, has political considerations to deal with. On Thursday, he said, he would “convene the government to approve the agreement and bring all our dear hostages home”. He must manage the response from the rightwing members of his government, including the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have threatened to topple the government in the event of a ceasefire.

Trump has tried to overcome those considerations by brute force, threatening “all hell” would break out in Gaza against Hamas if his desire for peace was not met. When Netanyahu expressed doubt about the deal, Axios reports that he told the Israeli leader: “I don’t know why you’re always so fucking negative … This is a win. Take it.”

The US president is said to be planning to travel to the region this weekend for the signing of a deal. This is his moment, and it may require all of his personal brand and influence to prevent yet another breakdown of talks and a return to the fighting in what would be a diplomatic defeat for his administration.