By / Jamal Al Awadhi

When Israeli jets struck Hamas negotiators in downtown Doha this September, the explosion rippled far beyond the Qatari capital. Within 24 hours, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order guaranteeing Qatar’s security — an extraordinary pledge for a country outside NATO. The move underscored how deeply Israel’s unprecedented strike had shaken the foundations of Gulf stability and Washington’s regional calculus.

The day before the order was signed, Trump had reportedly pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to apologize directly to Qatar’s ruler. In an Oval Office call, the Israeli leader promised not to repeat such actions — a rare concession from a government that has long acted with impunity in regional operations.

A Threshold Moment for the Gulf

For the Arab Gulf states, the Israeli attack marked a line crossed. The strike — carried out in the heart of Doha, host to the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base and a vital diplomatic hub — was perceived not only as an affront to Qatari sovereignty but also as a potential prelude to instability across the region. Many Gulf leaders and citizens saw it as an immediate threat to their collective security.

Washington scrambled to contain the fallout. Yet Trump’s inability or unwillingness to prevent the attack in the first place deepened Gulf skepticism about America’s long-term reliability as a security guarantor. As one senior Gulf diplomat put it, “If the U.S. couldn’t restrain its closest ally, what does that mean for us?”

The result: a new wave of strategic introspection. Gulf states are not preparing to replace Washington, but they are clearly moving to fill gaps in the U.S. umbrella — updating defense doctrines, building local capabilities, and exploring alternative partnerships.

A Rare Moment of Gulf Unity

The Doha strike had one immediate side effect: it galvanized Gulf solidarity. The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued one of its strongest collective statements in years, condemning the Israeli attack and declaring that aggression against one member would be treated as aggression against all. The GCC’s Joint Defense Council swiftly agreed to enhance intelligence coordination, fast-track a regional ballistic-missile early warning system, and revise joint defense plans.

Perhaps more strikingly, the crisis accelerated cooperation among the region’s three most influential players — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. This emerging “Gulf 3” alignment represents a pragmatic recognition that their collective weight can shape regional outcomes more effectively than fragmented diplomacy. Their recent coordination was already visible in joint statements warning Israel against annexing the West Bank, as well as in behind-the-scenes work with the Trump administration on cease-fire proposals for Gaza.

Shifting Perceptions of Israel

The Israeli attack shattered a decade of slow-motion normalization between the Gulf and the Jewish state. Just five years ago, the UAE and Bahrain formalized ties with Israel through the Abraham Accords, and Saudi Arabia was edging toward its own normalization talks. That momentum had already stalled following Hamas’s October 7 assault on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza — a conflict that left tens of thousands dead and inflamed public opinion across the Arab world.

But the strike on Qatar was a turning point. It reframed Israel not as a distant military power but as a potential direct threat to the Gulf’s own stability and ambitions for economic transformation. “If Israel can strike in Doha, it can strike anywhere,” warned Emirati advisor Anwar Gargash, calling the attack “treacherous” and asserting that “the security of the Arab Gulf states is indivisible.”

From Iran to Israel: A Strategic Recalibration

Ironically, Gulf fears about Israel are rising just as the perceived threat from Iran has diminished. Over the past two years, Israeli and U.S. operations have severely degraded Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” setting back Iran’s nuclear ambitions and weakening Hezbollah and Hamas. Even so, Iran remains a core concern — only months before the Doha attack, it launched a retaliatory strike near the Al-Udeid base after Israeli-American operations inside its territory.

Now, however, Gulf capitals are increasingly wary that Israel, under Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition, may be emerging as the new destabilizing actor in the region. Talk of a “Greater Israel” and expanding unilateral actions have amplified Gulf fears that Israel’s ambitions may extend beyond its borders.

Toward a New Security Architecture

Whether the aftermath of the Doha attack leads to lasting institutional change remains unclear. Some analysts see the early contours of a Gulf version of NATO — a more formalized regional defense alliance. Others expect a looser web of bilateral and trilateral security arrangements, still tied to the United States but less dependent on it.

Either way, the “Gulf 3” coordination appears to be the most promising development. Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha — with their wealth, diplomatic reach, and ties to Washington — are uniquely positioned to steer the region through a volatile phase. Their cooperation could prove pivotal in securing postwar arrangements in Gaza, stabilizing Syria, and reviving diplomacy with Iran.