OPEC Sticks to Oil Demand Forecast But Flags Fiscal Concerns, Lingering Trade Uncertainty

2025-10-13 04:10:55

OPEC and its partners, together known as OPEC+, have hit fast-forward on unwinding earlier output cuts, bumping up production by 630,000 barrels per day in September to reach 43.05 million barrels. That’s despite the alliance maintaining an optimistic view for oil demand all the way through 2025.

In its latest update, OPEC pointed to steady global economic momentum, backing its confidence that oil usage will stay robust. Still, this increased supply is putting fresh downward pressure on prices, which have sagged about 10% from spring highs.

OPEC’s latest projections also now see the oil market facing just a slim supply deficit—50,000 barrels per day in 2026, a big drop from last month’s 700,000-barrel gap forecast. So, the oil market’s supply and demand balance looks much tighter than previously thought.