After Donald Trump won the November election, many U.S. universities took the proactive step of warning their international students against staying abroad for the holidays beyond Jan. 20, Trump’s first day in office, for fear that the students would have trouble returning to the U.S. under the new administration.

University administrators’ worries are well-founded: a few days after Trump started his first term in 2017, thousands of students were stuck in their home countries after he issued a travel ban against Muslim-dominated nations. Foreign students were also a specific target for Republican lawmakers after the campus protests against Israel’s war in Gaza last summer.

Since his return to the White House, Trump has already asked immigration officials to tighten visa vetting procedures, which will likely slow processing times in embassies and consulates. Immigration advocates had expected this increased bureaucratic red tape, which was also a hallmark of Trump’s first term. However, data from his first administration paints a less grim picture for foreign students than Trump’s harsh rhetoric might suggest. During those years, the flow of international students stayed elevated. This time around, experts expect a similar pattern: while cracking down on some kinds of immigration, others, like students, will proceed largely unchanged.

The U.S. has issued between 300,000 and 500,000 F visas, the most common type of student visa, every year since 2007, government data showed. This was up from about 200,000 in the prior decade, and, excluding tourist and transit visas, represented a fifth of all resident non-immigrant visas every year.

The foreign student population in the U.S. is the world’s largest, hitting a record 1.1 million in the 2023-24 academic year, according to State Department data. The majority come from China and India, and thousands of international students, with many securing employment in U.S. companies after their studies, filling key roles in industries such as tech and finance.

During Trump’s first term at the White House, the approval rates for student visas declined slightly in 2017 and 2018, but rebounded in 2019. The same was true for the total number of visas issued. After the pandemic reduced visa issuances, student visas recovered the fastest among all types of visas, rising over 300% from 2020 to 2023. Against economic and political upheavals, the flow of foreign students to the U.S. was merely interrupted but not stopped. Fanta Aw, chief executive officer of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, a non-profit dedicated to education exchange, said there is an economic reason for it.

“When you think about the U.S. and its economy, it’s not only about the students, but who they become afterwards,” Aw said. “These students become workers, researchers and leaders back home. It’s an important component of U.S. international engagement.”

“Meanwhile, while they’re here, they contribute economically. That is something the U.S. cannot afford to ignore,” she added.

The White House has declined to comment when asked if Trump’s immigration crackdown will involve reducing the number of foreign students.