By: Jamal Badr Al-Awadi

Relations between the United States and Iran have reached a new level of escalation following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that he had sent a direct message to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urging him to return to the negotiating table regarding Iran’s nuclear program. In a controversial statement, Trump warned that the alternative to negotiations could be military action, stressing that “something is going to happen very soon” concerning Iran.

This message comes amid rising tensions between the two sides, as Washington seeks to impose new conditions on Tehran to curtail its nuclear program and regional influence, while Iran refuses to submit to any international pressure, insisting that any negotiations must be unconditional and must safeguard its sovereign rights.

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Trump and Iran: A Return to Confrontation After Years of De-escalation?

Since withdrawing from the nuclear agreement in May 2018, Trump adopted a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran, imposing unprecedented sanctions that targeted Iran’s economy, including the oil, banking, and military industries, in an effort to force Tehran back to the negotiating table under new terms. However, despite these sanctions, Iran continued to develop its nuclear program and increase uranium enrichment, raising concerns within the international community.

After Trump left the White House in January 2021, U.S. policy toward Iran saw significant shifts under President Joe Biden, as his administration attempted to revive the nuclear deal through negotiations in Vienna. However, these efforts failed to yield tangible results, as Iran refused to scale down its nuclear program without U.S. guarantees against another withdrawal from the agreement. Additionally, Tehran continued to support its regional allies, including groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

With Trump re-emerging on the political scene and regional tensions escalating, the confrontation between Washington and Tehran appears to be returning to square one, as Trump attempts to reassert his conditions on Iran with a more aggressive approach.

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Iran’s Response: No Negotiation Under Pressure

In a direct response to Trump’s message, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated that Iran would not succumb to international pressure, emphasizing that the United States was trying to recreate a scenario of sanctions and military escalation to push Tehran into negotiations from a position of weakness. Khamenei asserted that Iran would not abandon its peaceful nuclear program nor cease its support for regional allies, dismissing U.S. military threats as nothing more than a political blackmail attempt.

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Iran’s Stance: Resistance Options Remain Open

Iran is aware that Washington is not ready for an open military confrontation, particularly amid global tensions stemming from the war in Ukraine and growing competition with China. Therefore, Tehran is deliberately stalling for time, aiming to strengthen its nuclear and military capabilities, creating a new reality that would make it difficult for the U.S. and its allies to impose an agreement on Iran under restrictive conditions.

Additionally, Iran is betting on its strategic relationships with China and Russia, having signed economic and military agreements with both nations. This cooperation helps Tehran circumvent U.S. sanctions and secure political and diplomatic backing on the global stage.

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International Reactions: Calls for De-escalation Amid Fears of Military Conflict

As tensions escalate, several international actors have expressed concerns about the possibility of a direct military confrontation between Washington and Tehran, particularly as the region is already witnessing security escalations in Iraq and Syria, as well as reciprocal attacks in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf.

1. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Warnings of Accelerated Uranium Enrichment

The IAEA has warned that Iran is very close to having the capability to produce nuclear weapons, noting that its uranium enrichment levels have surpassed the limits set by the 2015 nuclear agreement. The agency further cautioned that time is running out to find diplomatic solutions that would prevent Iran from reaching nuclear breakout capability.

2. European Stance: Calls for De-escalation and Revival of the Nuclear Deal

European countries, particularly France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, are pushing to revive the nuclear deal and avoid escalation. European officials have called for direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington, offering economic incentives to Iran in exchange for compliance with the nuclear agreement’s provisions.

3. Russia and China: Backing Tehran and Rejecting U.S. Pressure

Russia and China have taken a firm stance against U.S. pressure on Iran, arguing that Washington is responsible for escalating the crisis following its withdrawal from the nuclear deal. China has strengthened its economic ties with Iran, while Russia has provided military and technical assistance, giving Tehran greater strategic leverage.

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Where Is the Crisis Heading?

As tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate, several potential scenarios emerge:

1. A New Deal Under Modified Terms

Despite the complexities, international pressure could lead to renewed negotiations, with the possibility of reaching a balanced agreement that accommodates both U.S. and Iranian demands—particularly if economic incentives are offered to Iran.

2. Limited Military Escalation

If Iran persists in expanding its nuclear program, the U.S. and Israel may opt for limited military strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, potentially triggering retaliatory attacks by Iranian-backed militias across the region.

3. Continued Stalemate and Indirect Confrontation

Tensions may persist without leading to a direct military conflict, as Iran continues its proxy war tactics by launching indirect attacks on U.S. interests in the region, while Washington maintains crippling economic sanctions.

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A Crisis With No Easy Solutions

The U.S.-Iran crisis remains one of the most complex international challenges, as regional and global dynamics intersect, directly impacting Middle East stability. With both sides adamant in their positions, the crucial question remains:

Will diplomacy prevail and avert a major conflict, or has military escalation become inevitable?